Tuyen's Blog

Warriors... PLEASE make this trade...

The Golden State Warriors have made it clear to the New Jersey Nets that they want more than just Brook Lopez if they are going to get Monta Ellis in return.
via sports.yahoo.com

I don't understand why the Warriors would not do a straight-up Lopez for Ellis deal. Yes, Monta is a phenomenal scorer but he also costs $11M a year for the next 3 years whereas Lopez is at $3M and $4M for 2012 and 2013. But money aside, talented 7 foot centers don't come along every day. Especially ones that can easily become 20pt/10rb guys. A shooting guard's performance can more easily be replaced. Think of it this way, would you rather have a starting five of Curry/Ellis/Wright/Lee/Biedrins or Curry/Klay/Wright/Lee/Lopez? Klay may be 40% of Ellis in terms of production (and improving) but Biedrins is about 10% of the production that Lopez would give you (and falling). Make. The. Trade.

Monta Ellis scores career high 48 points … Warriors lose again

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Monta Ellis is a phenomenal scorer.  He showed it off last night versus the Thunder in a losing effort.  But it points to the same old story.  The Warriors cannot win with the team comprised as it is.  The Warriors are fun to watch but if this team ever wants to get ahead in a very very very competitive Western Conference, they need big changes.  They need a big time defender and a reliable post up player (not necessarily in one person).  Monta's stock is as high as it's ever been this season.  Time to move him and his amazing scoring talents to a team that has at least one or two players that might fit the bill.  Possible trade scenarios?  Threw some of these together taking into account needs and salaries.

1.  Ellis/Lee/Udoh to Orlando for Howard/Turkoglu
Orlando gets more than enough offense to make up for Howard and a some defense in Udoh.  They also get to shed themselves of Turkoglu's contract.  Warriors get the best center in the game and solve their defense/post player situation.  Turkoglu is a serviceable forward who might rejuvenate his career in a new setting.  At worst, he's an overpaid, bigger Brandon Rush.

2.  Ellis/Kwame to Detroit for Monroe/Gordon/Wallace
The meat of this trade is really Monroe/Gordon for Ellis.  Wallace and Kwame are thrown in as expiring contracts and cap math.  Warriors get back some backcourt scoring in Gordon and some interior toughness in Monroe.  Detroit gets cap relief by giving up Gordon's contract and a top 10 scorer who can play alongside Stuckey as their backcourt for years to come.

3.  Ellis to Phoenix for Gortat/Carter
This would be an excellent trade for the Warriors.  Carter is still a serviceable bench player and Gortat gives them a strong presence in the middle.  Not sure if Phoenix would like it but since they are moving to youth, Ellis being their PG of the future after Nash leaves is something to consider.
SCRATCH THAT: Was looking at some old rosters.  Forgot Carter got waived before the season started.  In that case, I would replace him with Shannon Brown.  This is actually an upgrade to the trade since Brown can still play good minutes as a reserve.

4.  Ellis/Kwame/Udoh to New Orleans for Okafor/Kaman
This one has a lot of risks and upside.  Okafaor looks like he'll never be anything but a good solid backup center.  Still he's better than what the Warriors have now (Biedrens).  Kaman is the key here.  If he's healthy and can get back to form, they have a very good center (Top 10?) to play alongside a good PF in Lee and a good point guard in Curry.  Wright moves to the SG spot and maybe Brandon Rush moves to SF.  If Klay Thompson develops well they could have him in the SG spot and move Wright back to SF.  New Orleans is rebuilding and a backcourt of Gordon and Ellis would be crazy fun to watch.

Uh... Ok... Kwame Brown, Warriors agree to one-year deal

Center Kwame Brown has agreed to a one-year, $7-million contract with the Golden State Warriors, according to a Yahoo! Sports report.
via sports.yahoo.com

Kind of scratching my head on this one. $7M for a back-up center who has had a history of underachievement? So now we have two centers who aren't worth their contracts?

Chris Paul for Stephen Curry sounds good, but...

Sources said that the Hornets have actually been trying to convince the Warriors to part with Curry since before last season's trade deadline in February.
via espn.go.com

On the surface, Chris Paul for Stephen Curry sounds like a no brainer trade. But before people think this is another Speedy Claxton for Baron Davis, there are some big pitfalls involved. First, Stephen Curry is a much better player than Speedy Claxton ever was and at 23, he's yet to reach his prime. Second, the market for Baron Davis circa 2004 was limited. Remember this was the disgruntled, slightly overweight Baron Davis who clashed with Byron Scott, a coach who had taken the Nets to back-to-back NBA Finals. The Warriors knew they could sign Davis to an extension with not too many suitors out there. Chris Paul on the other had is one of the Top 3 point guards in the league. Every team with cap room will make a run at him and he knows it so why sign an extension when you can play for a year and get the gold rush in the summer of 2012? Curry for a one year rental of Paul is not a good move.

Paul has stated he would be more willing (though not guaranteed) to sign an extension with a team that acquired his buddy Tyson Chandler. The Warriors are pushing towards that and he would be an upgrade over Biedrins - some offense, good defense/rebounding, veteran leadership, playoff experience. Still, I don't see a starting 5 of Paul/Ellis/Wright/Lee/Chandler as anything more than the 4th or 5th best team in the West. Definitely an improvement but nowhere near what it would take to be a contender.

NBA Draft 2011

So here we are again... NBA Draft time. The interesting backdrop to this year's draft is whether there will even be a season in 2011-2012 given the labor negotiations. Let's assume there is and see what the W's might be able to procure.

Across the board, experts say this is probably one of the weakest draft classes in a long time. Therefore, there's really no place to look but up regarding who the Warriors would get. Given the uncertain tenure of Monta Ellis, you could say a play at SG/SF might be in order. However, I'll assume they get a quality SG/SF if they trade away Monta. The big glaring hole is probably at center. Ekpe Udoh has a ton of potential but he'll never be an offensive threat. He could develop into a solid defensive center but at 6' 9", he'll always be a little undersized to guard the better centers of the league. Andris has fallen off the face of the earth and I don't think anything can bring him back outside of a change of scenery. However with a bloated contract, he may be difficult to move.

So what options are available at the 11th pick? Some draft boards have Lithuanian phenom Donatas Motiejunas available. He's gifted offensively but is a beanpole and would be pushed around by bigger NBA C/PF's. Also, he's a liability on defense (but nearly all the W's are). Finally there is a question re: his commitment/desire/work-ethic. I fear without a strong coach (not sure if Mark Jackson will be one or not) he'll regress and won't continue to improve year after year. Another player with lots of question marks but a ton of hype is Bismack Biyombo from the Congo. He has the makings to be Mutumbo-esque but feels like another version of Ekpe Udoh and I'm not sure the W's want to double up at the same position with two virtually identical players. At the end of the day, I don't hold out too much hope for this pick given the lack of depth in this draft and the W's drafting relatively late. But then again, I didn't have much hope for the W's pick last year and he's turning out ok.

Warriors lose to Lakers but much to be optimistic about

I just saw a great game between the Warriors and the Lakers. Outcome wasn't good (LA won) but man, it was competitive down to the last minute. Couple of free throws made by GS and couple missed by LA and the game could have gone the other way. Cause for optimism comes from the two previous games versus Phoenix and Boston. With their two bigs back (Biedrins and Turiaf), GS shows the potential of the team that some picked as the 8th seed in the West. The true test will be the next 27 games where they will have 18 at home. It'll be nearly impossible to make up 8 games to catch up to the 8th seed but a decent showing could go a long way towards whether they are sellers or buyers at the trade deadline. BTW, best block I've seen from Turiaf in a while and that's for a guy who gets a lot of good blocks every game.

Stoudemire coming to Golden State looks unlikely

Stoudemire clarified or reasserted points that he is healthy, wants to stay in Phoenix, does not want to play for Golden State and wants a maximum-level contract extension.
via azcentral.com

The rumored Amare to the Warriors trade doesn't look too likely given his recent statements. I have nothing against Stoudemire not wanting to come to the Warriors. He's going to get paid a lot of money no matter what so he would at least like to get paid a lot of money by a team that will contend. Though having Amare will definitely help the Warriors, it won't make them a contender and having him as a 1 year rental at the price of Biedrins, Wright, and Belinelli is a steep price to pay. Biedrins may not have any big offensive skills but the Warriors aren't lacking for offense. They need him to get better at defending, rebounding, and blocking shots. Sort of like a younger and less talented version of Dikembe. Though Wright and Belinelli have not been break out players, their contracts can be voided in 2010/11, saving the W's about $5.8 million against the cap. Throw in Acie Law's team option and Speedy Claxton's expiring contract and that's about $14 million the W's will have off their books next year. Just in time to make a medium size splash in the huge free agent market next year.

Post draft notes

A few tidbits of news coming out of last nights NBA Draft:
 
* Ricky Rubio doesn't seem to like Minnesota. There are reports that his father says Rubio might return to Spain and play out his contract with Joventut. Plus his mom doesn't like the cold. I don't think he'll go back but might use it as leverage to force a trade a la Steve Francis. My guess, The Knicks pull it off by packaging David Lee and change. I guess that Jonny Flynn pick up at #6 wasn't that crazy after all.
 
* The rumored Amare Stoudemire for Biedrins, Wright, and Belinelli might actually be Biedrins, Wright, and Curry. Makes sense from Phoenix's standpoint to get a starting center and a potential PG of the future after Nash leaves in a year or two. It never really made sense to have two guards who are more comfortable playing the 2 try to be your PG. It's hard enough trying to get Monta to play the point effectively. Curry's stock is really high now and can only go down if he's competing for minutes with a much better Monta. Though I'm not against seeing if a Monta/Curry back court could be harmonious. I just don't think there are enough shots in a game to satisfy both of them plus Jackson and Maggette.
 
* Ty Lawson could be the sleeper PG to emerge from this PG heavy 1st round. Tyreke Evans and Curry aren't real PG's and I think they'll slide over to the 2 for most of their careers. Rubio has a ton of potential/hype which may be his undoing. He looks good dishing out assists but a lack of speed, athleticism, defense and shooting ability makes him vulnerable to faster guards who are much better than what he's played against to date. One of the reasons Nash dishes out so many assists is that his good shooting ability keeps defenders honest. If defenders knew Rubio couldn't hit a jumper consistently, they are in a much better position defensively. Lawson is one of the fastest guards in the draft and though he won't dazzle people with amazing passes, he's an efficient scorer who can manage a half court offense. He'll learn a lot from Billups and won't be asked to be the savior of a franchise. You also can't discount his proven ability to lead a team to a championship.
 
* I feel horrible for Jordan Hill. When he was announced as The Knicks pick, a little boy gave the thumbs down sign and his father had to turn it to a thumbs up. Hill is a solid player who doesn't deserve the jeers from the Curry-crazy Knicks fans. I hope he gets traded out of New York because he deserves better. Since Phoenix is rebuilding, how about trading for the U of A alum and some expiring contracts in exchange for Nash who obviously wants out and would love to be reunited with D'Antoni. Plus since Stoudemire is leaving, they'll need a big body with decent post moves to play alongside Biedrens who has no post moves. One can wish.

Amare to the Warriors?

There's a trade rumor out there that Amare Stoudemire may be moved to the Warriors for Biedrins, Wright, and Belinelli. If this happens, the W's are instantly a playoff team (assuming Amare stays healthy). Wright and Belinelli are improving players but I don't see them being superstars. Biedrins is a little bit harder to part with. He improved every season he was in the league and at only 23, he has a ton of upside. Though still raw and with few real post moves, he's shown an ability to rebound, run the floor, and play the pick and roll. With Nash dishing to him, I think he'll flourish in Phoenix.
 
A potential starting 5 for the W's would be Ellis, Maggette, Jackson, Randolph, and Stoudemire with CJ, Curry, Morrow, Azubuike, and Turiaf on the second team. Again, just a rumor.

Jamal Crawford to the Hawks

I posted about this potential trade earlier. It looks like it's going to happen unless Jamal Crawford doesn't love money. The Warriors get Acie Law and Speedy Claxton in return but this trade seems to be all about getting rid of Crawford. I don't expect either of them to see much playing time next year. Claxton is hurt and Acie Law has been largely a bust. The good thing is that both of their contracts come off the books next year which will clear about $7.5 million for the W's salary cap. Jamal never really fit into Nellie's system and given the logjam the W's had at the off guard position and given his large contract, he seemed the logical player to move.
 
Does this mean the W's will get a big man or a point guard? I can see either happening but only if Jordan Hill falls to #7. Otherwise, it's Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, or Jonny Flynn. If they get Hill, then a starting rotation would be Ellis, Magette, Jackson, Randolph, and Biedrins with CJ, Morrow, Azubuike, Hill, and Turiaf making up the second team. If they pick up a point guard, then the starting 5 remains the same but CJ now becomes expendable (he's a free agent) and the second team will be [insert new PG], Morrow, Azubuike, Wright, and Turiaf. Will see what actually happens tomorrow. Can't wait!