Tuyen's Blog

Warriors need to lose these next two games...

Warriors are playing the Hornets now and are off to a hot start. THEY. NEED. TO. STOP.

With the Raptors playing the Nets in the last game of the season, one of them will have a 23-43 record. If the Warriors lose the next two games they will have an identical 23-43 record and be in a tie for the 7th worst record. This means they'll split the number of ping pong balls between them for the lottery but more importantly, they will be in a coin flip for the 7th or 8th spot should neither of them win the lottery. This gives the Warriors a shot at keeping their pick since it's only 1-7 protected. Otherwise, the pick goes to Utah for the disastrous trade for Marcus Williams. On that note, it's somewhat good news that Larry Riley is out as Warriors GM. Who knows if Bob Myers will do any better but it's good to see the last of the old guard out.

Warriors trade Ellis to Bucks for Bogut - All Risk, Very Little Reward

The Warriors have been trying to get a top-notch center for some time, and they paid a steep price to get Bogut because they gave up one of the NBA's top scoring guards in Ellis...
via sports.yahoo.com

How many ways is this a bad trade?

1) Bogut is out for the rest of the year with a fractured ankle. Not something you come back from with no long term issues (see Curry).

2) The Warriors tack on about $25M more in salaries over the next two years.

3) They basically traded away their best scorer AND best defender for Captain Jack.

4) They lose Kwame Brown's expiring $7M contract which could have been excellent trade bait.

The only way this trade even begins to make sense is if Bogut can be better than he has ever been. Given his immaturity and propensity for injury, I have a hard time seeing that happening. Jackson may have another renaissance in the Bay Area but he's also 4 years older and declining which makes the likelihood of that happening very low.

If the rumors were true that another trade was available and turned down, then it's just business as usual for the inept front office and ownership, no matter who's in charge.

Warriors... PLEASE make this trade...

The Golden State Warriors have made it clear to the New Jersey Nets that they want more than just Brook Lopez if they are going to get Monta Ellis in return.
via sports.yahoo.com

I don't understand why the Warriors would not do a straight-up Lopez for Ellis deal. Yes, Monta is a phenomenal scorer but he also costs $11M a year for the next 3 years whereas Lopez is at $3M and $4M for 2012 and 2013. But money aside, talented 7 foot centers don't come along every day. Especially ones that can easily become 20pt/10rb guys. A shooting guard's performance can more easily be replaced. Think of it this way, would you rather have a starting five of Curry/Ellis/Wright/Lee/Biedrins or Curry/Klay/Wright/Lee/Lopez? Klay may be 40% of Ellis in terms of production (and improving) but Biedrins is about 10% of the production that Lopez would give you (and falling). Make. The. Trade.

Forget what I said earlier about Warriors trades...

In his first start of the season, Udoh had a career-high 19 points to go with eight rebounds and led the Warriors past the Los Angeles Clippers 104-97 on Monday night.
via sports.yahoo.com

One game does not make a trend. But man, what a game. Ekpe Udoh's first start of the season was an eye opener and he did it against legit big men. Going up against Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan (ironically, the big man the Warriors went after in the pre-season) and occasionally Kenyon Martin, Udoh held his own. More than anything he looked gassed because he's usually playing reserve minutes. Here's hoping he gets another start and can build on this.

Monta Ellis scores career high 48 points … Warriors lose again

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Monta Ellis is a phenomenal scorer.  He showed it off last night versus the Thunder in a losing effort.  But it points to the same old story.  The Warriors cannot win with the team comprised as it is.  The Warriors are fun to watch but if this team ever wants to get ahead in a very very very competitive Western Conference, they need big changes.  They need a big time defender and a reliable post up player (not necessarily in one person).  Monta's stock is as high as it's ever been this season.  Time to move him and his amazing scoring talents to a team that has at least one or two players that might fit the bill.  Possible trade scenarios?  Threw some of these together taking into account needs and salaries.

1.  Ellis/Lee/Udoh to Orlando for Howard/Turkoglu
Orlando gets more than enough offense to make up for Howard and a some defense in Udoh.  They also get to shed themselves of Turkoglu's contract.  Warriors get the best center in the game and solve their defense/post player situation.  Turkoglu is a serviceable forward who might rejuvenate his career in a new setting.  At worst, he's an overpaid, bigger Brandon Rush.

2.  Ellis/Kwame to Detroit for Monroe/Gordon/Wallace
The meat of this trade is really Monroe/Gordon for Ellis.  Wallace and Kwame are thrown in as expiring contracts and cap math.  Warriors get back some backcourt scoring in Gordon and some interior toughness in Monroe.  Detroit gets cap relief by giving up Gordon's contract and a top 10 scorer who can play alongside Stuckey as their backcourt for years to come.

3.  Ellis to Phoenix for Gortat/Carter
This would be an excellent trade for the Warriors.  Carter is still a serviceable bench player and Gortat gives them a strong presence in the middle.  Not sure if Phoenix would like it but since they are moving to youth, Ellis being their PG of the future after Nash leaves is something to consider.
SCRATCH THAT: Was looking at some old rosters.  Forgot Carter got waived before the season started.  In that case, I would replace him with Shannon Brown.  This is actually an upgrade to the trade since Brown can still play good minutes as a reserve.

4.  Ellis/Kwame/Udoh to New Orleans for Okafor/Kaman
This one has a lot of risks and upside.  Okafaor looks like he'll never be anything but a good solid backup center.  Still he's better than what the Warriors have now (Biedrens).  Kaman is the key here.  If he's healthy and can get back to form, they have a very good center (Top 10?) to play alongside a good PF in Lee and a good point guard in Curry.  Wright moves to the SG spot and maybe Brandon Rush moves to SF.  If Klay Thompson develops well they could have him in the SG spot and move Wright back to SF.  New Orleans is rebuilding and a backcourt of Gordon and Ellis would be crazy fun to watch.

Curry says he's 'safe and secure' with Warriors

Stephen Curry says he has received assurances from team executives that he is “safe and secure” with the Golden State Warriors despite the latest round of trade talks surrounding the point guard.
via sports.yahoo.com

Not necessarily buying it but just means a trade is now less likely...

Chris Paul for Stephen Curry sounds good, but...

Sources said that the Hornets have actually been trying to convince the Warriors to part with Curry since before last season's trade deadline in February.
via espn.go.com

On the surface, Chris Paul for Stephen Curry sounds like a no brainer trade. But before people think this is another Speedy Claxton for Baron Davis, there are some big pitfalls involved. First, Stephen Curry is a much better player than Speedy Claxton ever was and at 23, he's yet to reach his prime. Second, the market for Baron Davis circa 2004 was limited. Remember this was the disgruntled, slightly overweight Baron Davis who clashed with Byron Scott, a coach who had taken the Nets to back-to-back NBA Finals. The Warriors knew they could sign Davis to an extension with not too many suitors out there. Chris Paul on the other had is one of the Top 3 point guards in the league. Every team with cap room will make a run at him and he knows it so why sign an extension when you can play for a year and get the gold rush in the summer of 2012? Curry for a one year rental of Paul is not a good move.

Paul has stated he would be more willing (though not guaranteed) to sign an extension with a team that acquired his buddy Tyson Chandler. The Warriors are pushing towards that and he would be an upgrade over Biedrins - some offense, good defense/rebounding, veteran leadership, playoff experience. Still, I don't see a starting 5 of Paul/Ellis/Wright/Lee/Chandler as anything more than the 4th or 5th best team in the West. Definitely an improvement but nowhere near what it would take to be a contender.

NBA Draft 2011

So here we are again... NBA Draft time. The interesting backdrop to this year's draft is whether there will even be a season in 2011-2012 given the labor negotiations. Let's assume there is and see what the W's might be able to procure.

Across the board, experts say this is probably one of the weakest draft classes in a long time. Therefore, there's really no place to look but up regarding who the Warriors would get. Given the uncertain tenure of Monta Ellis, you could say a play at SG/SF might be in order. However, I'll assume they get a quality SG/SF if they trade away Monta. The big glaring hole is probably at center. Ekpe Udoh has a ton of potential but he'll never be an offensive threat. He could develop into a solid defensive center but at 6' 9", he'll always be a little undersized to guard the better centers of the league. Andris has fallen off the face of the earth and I don't think anything can bring him back outside of a change of scenery. However with a bloated contract, he may be difficult to move.

So what options are available at the 11th pick? Some draft boards have Lithuanian phenom Donatas Motiejunas available. He's gifted offensively but is a beanpole and would be pushed around by bigger NBA C/PF's. Also, he's a liability on defense (but nearly all the W's are). Finally there is a question re: his commitment/desire/work-ethic. I fear without a strong coach (not sure if Mark Jackson will be one or not) he'll regress and won't continue to improve year after year. Another player with lots of question marks but a ton of hype is Bismack Biyombo from the Congo. He has the makings to be Mutumbo-esque but feels like another version of Ekpe Udoh and I'm not sure the W's want to double up at the same position with two virtually identical players. At the end of the day, I don't hold out too much hope for this pick given the lack of depth in this draft and the W's drafting relatively late. But then again, I didn't have much hope for the W's pick last year and he's turning out ok.

Warriors GM: ‘We are not shopping Ellis’ ... maybe

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via nba-point-forward.si.com

Just read the interview from Larry Riley in SI. I'm taking it with a grain of salt given that Riley is a lame duck GM who is just grooming his replacement Bob Myers. My guess is that a deal may still be in the works for Ellis but one of two things could be happening. Either the Warriors are trying to get more for Ellis or they are bracing the fans should a deal not materialize.

Ellis is a valuable trade commodity. He's young, scores in bunches and has a reasonable contract given his level of performance. He also plays no defense but in the right system, that might not matter as much. I'll believe Larry Riley when it's October and Ellis is still in a W's uniform.

Lots of Warriors news ... Mark Jackson as head coach and Ellis trade rumors

Wow, lots of news today for the W's. First a confirmed event - Mark Jackson is announced as the new head coach. Not 100% sure of the success of this choice but it does mix things up a little bit (not necessarily a bad thing). However, without any NBA coaching experience, Jackson will have a tough road ahead of him leading a team that is not the most disciplined. Up tempo may be exciting to watch but doesn't always lead to many championships.

As for the Ellis for Iguodala trade rumors, that one might be interesting. Of course, Iguodala is not as dynamic a scorer as Ellis but he does have size, can rebound better, and may fit better with Curry. However, he is a year older and $11.1M more over the next 3 years ($2.5M, $3.7M and $4.9M). If he plays like he did in 2006-2008 then this could work. However, if he's more like his 2009-2011 numbers then this is a bad trade. Still, it'll be hard to see Ellis go. He was definitely exciting but in the long run, there was no way the Warriors could win with two undersized guards.