I guess we can't say this was unexpected. Though I have been critical of Yang in the past, I always maintained that he was only doing what he thought best for Yahoo. He can't really be blamed for the downturn in the online advertising market (everyone is hurting) or even losing market share in search to Google (Semel can take the brunt of that hit). The failure of the Microsoft deal will squarely fall on his shoulders but if it turns out a new CEO can turn Yahoo's fortunes around, the pain of that gaff will be greatly diminished.

So who would make a good CEO? I think they should go and poach a very senior executive from the Google ranks. It would have to be someone from outside the inner circle but still high enough to have had their fingers in a significant amount of Google's operations. My short list would be Shona Brown, Jonathan Rosenberg, David Eun, or perhaps even Marissa Mayer. If Facebook has shown it can poach, why not Yahoo? It has much better financials and a stronger foundation - i.e., better chance of success, in my opinion.

Yahoo! is tanking on yesterday's confirmations from Jerry Yang and Steve Ballmer that the rumors of a new buy-out deal by Microsoft were indeed false. Yahoo!'s currently valued at about $16 billion, a far cry from the $46 billion that Microsoft had offered. The question now is, in this bad economic climate, how long will it take for Yahoo! (if at all) to reach that valuation on its own? 2 years? Maybe 4 years?

The big bet they are making is that YOS is going to blow up. I'm not necessarily sure being a platform translates into significantly higher reveneus/profits. It almost seems as if they want to get more people to interact with them in more of a Facebook style. To my knowledge, Facebook still hasn't found a way to effectively monetize all of its traffic.

I think they should take a page out of Google's book and copy AdSense but make it more open and transparent. As a former AdSense customer, it's a pretty cryptic system. "Just put this script up and trust that we'll pay you something." Yahoo! could improve upon this by treating publishers like partners and not kids. Yahoo! is at the point where they've got nothing to lose so why not try anything and everything?

So news comes today that Google has pulled out of its proposed search advertising deal with Yahoo. I once said that an independent Yahoo is good for the entire online ecosystem. I still believe that today but I have a hard time thinking that Yahoo can survive without the added cash-flow that the Google deal would have provided. The latest amended deal sent to Congress would have limited the time-frame of the deal to two years and set the maximum revenue that Yahoo could generate from Google at 25% of its search revenue. I thought this was a great compromise but I guess that wasn't what Google had originally wanted.

My first job was at a database marketing consulting firm which had Apple as its client. This was back in 1996 when Apple wasn't doing too well. Gil Amelio was CEO and the company was floundering. One of his final acts was to buy NeXT which would lead to his eventual ousting and the return of Steve Jobs. I remember in 1997, Steve Jobs is giving one of his first "Stevenotes" and in the middle of the speech, who would appear on the big screen behind him but Bill Gates to announce a $150 million investment in Apple. Thought sacrilegious at the time, this investment would provide the capital that Apple needed to carry out its plans to launch the first generation iMac and iBook. The rest is history. Maybe Yahoo needs something similar - a little jolt of outside investment from an old enemy. The question is ... Microsoft or Google?

A few days ago I wrote about lay-offs and how I was glad we played it safe with our hiring strategy. Today, I read over at Techcrunch that Mahalo is cutting 10% of its staff. The thing I was most impressed with was CEO Jason Calacanis' honest admission that he let down the people who he had to lay-off.

"It’s my responsibility to make this hard decision and I don’t take it lightly. To the people impacted I’m very sorry that I wasn’t able to anticipate this better. It’s my fault and I’m sorry that you’ve got to bear the burden of my inability to better prepare."

 

Contrast this with the somewhat arms length statement Yahoo! CEO Jerry Yang made when he announced his 10% cut.

"affected employees will be notified of layoffs in the next several weeks. we understand that hearing this news now creates uncertainty, but we are moving ahead in a way that balances speed with a clear focus on accomplishing what is necessary to set the organization up for long term success. going forward it will continue to be important for us to make the right decisions to keep our business efficient and strong.

having layoffs is very difficult, particularly in light of all we’ve experienced this year. but we don’t take these decisions lightly, and are committed to treating affected employees fairly, offering severance and outplacement services."

 

In my very humble opinion, Jason's statement had genuine feeling and an admission of failure. It sounded like he really cared about his employees and that he took full responsibility for his actions. Jerry, on the other hand, seemed to take a very corporate approach in his statement. Almost as if he's disconnected from the entire process. In saying that they are "moving ahead in a way that balances speed with a clear focus", I felt he placed some of the blame on the company's poor performance on the employees themselves. As if letting them go will help turn the ship around. Let's not take into account the fact that Yahoo! could have sold itself to Microsoft just a few months ago for more than 2.5 times its current value. Or go back a few years and ask why Yahoo! couldn't counteract the Google threat even as they were sending millions of queries a day when Google powered their search engine. No where did I ever hear an admission of guilt from Jerry even though he is the head of the company.

In all fairness, it's easier to be close with your employees when the count is 50-60 versus 14,000+ and Jerry can't be blamed for all that is wrong with Yahoo! He inherited a company that lost its edge the day they decided to outsource their search technology. Still, a little contrition couldn't hurt.

For full disclosure, I sold every last stock that I owned right after the first dot-com bust in 2000/2001 so I never get overly excited or bummed when the market does well or not. I still track the usual suspects in my industry though and noticed an interesting trend. Below is today's results for Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft.

Not a bad day all around. But does it seem bad that Yahoo isn't rebounding as much as the others. Shouldn't a rising tide raise all ships? A more alarming stat is that since October 1st, Yahoo has fallen almost 38% while Google and Microsoft have fallen a little over 24% and 23%, respectively. I hope the folks over at Yahoo can pull through this. I think with 3 major companies in the online space, there will be more competition and innovation. I've always tried to stay loyal to Yahoo but gave up using their search engine a couple of years ago. Still have my My Yahoo page and like their Sports section and I'm sure their other properties are doing well. Still, they need to shore up their search technology and NOT do the Google deal as that is a slippery slope down to technology mediocrity no matter what they say. Given the choice every quarter of whether to invest in technology or squeeze out a few more pennies per share in earnings by using Google technology, I'd say most folks would take the easier path. Let's hope I'm wrong.